📊 TFW Daily Briefing
TFW Daily Briefing — 27 October 2026
Updated: 2026-10-27 19:02:04 UTC
Educational context only — never financial advice. Markets can do anything; protect your capital first 💛
Educational context only — never financial advice. Markets can do anything; protect your capital first 💛
Market Overview — Prev Session
Today's AI lean (educational only):
◀ bearish · neutral · bullish ▶ — further from centre = stronger conviction
very strong bear
moderate bear
neutral
moderate bull
very strong bull
EURUSD
no clear bias
EUR/USD is sitting in a quiet, no-clear-direction zone right now — price closed just a tiny step lower last session and is resting in the lower half of its recent range (meaning closer to recent lows than recent highs), which gives us a very mild lean to the downside, but not enough to act on yet. 💛 The high-impact news events today (the AUD and NZD releases) don't directly drive this pair, so we're watching for EUR or USD headlines to give us a clearer signal — a hold above 1.1220 keeps things mixed, while a decisive push back above 1.1250 would erase even this small downward tilt. Until we see stronger follow-through in either direction, there's no clear bias here worth leaning into.
⚠️ Lean invalidated if: 1.1250
GBPUSD
no clear bias
Cable (GBPUSD) closed the last session essentially flat, with no clear push in either direction just yet — so right now we're in a 'wait and see' spot rather than a confident lean one way or the other. 💛 The pair is sitting near the top of its recent range (the high end of the prices it's been bouncing between), but the session was quiet, meaning price didn't travel much compared to its usual daily distance. Keep an eye on whether buyers can hold this area and push through — if they can't and price slips back below 1.3350, that would signal the high may be in and the picture shifts more cautious.
⚠️ Lean invalidated if: 1.3350
USDJPY
moderate bear (2/4)
The dollar-yen closed the last session down about 1% and is sitting in the lower half of its daily range (meaning price ended closer to the day's lows than its highs), which gives us a moderate bearish bias (leaning downward) for now. 💛 That lean stays intact while price holds below 157.20 — a push back above that level would tell us sellers have lost control and we'd want to step back and reassess. Worth noting that although none of today's red-folder events (the high-impact news that can shake price hard and fast) are directly USD or JPY news, the AUD and NZD releases hitting at 5:00pm PST can ripple across the broader Asian-currency world and add unexpected volatility (sharp, fast moves), so keep your risk tight.
⚠️ Lean invalidated if: 157.20
AUDUSD
no clear bias
The Aussie (AUD/USD) is sitting near the top of its recent range (the high point price has been bouncing around in) with a quiet session behind it — no strong push in either direction yet. 💛 Today brings a big triple-threat: three Australian inflation (CPI — the measure of how much prices are rising) reports all dropping at 5:00pm PST, which means price could move sharply in either direction depending on those numbers. Until we see how the market reacts to that data, there's no clear lean here — a strong reading that surprises to the upside could give bulls (buyers) a reason to push higher, while a soft reading below expectations could send price back down toward 0.6980, the level where our neutral read would shift bearish.
⚠️ Lean invalidated if: 0.6980
USDCAD
no clear bias
USDCAD is sitting near the bottom of its recent range (the lowest prices it's touched lately) after a quiet session with below-average movement, so there's no clear directional bias forming just yet 💛. We'd want to see price either hold and push back up from this area, or break below it with momentum, before leaning one way — right now the picture is mixed enough to stay patient. Worth noting that today's key scheduled events are AUD-related (Australian dollar news), so direct volatility for this pair may be limited unless broader market risk sentiment shifts.
⚠️ Lean invalidated if: 1.3850
GBPJPY
no clear bias
The pound-yen (GBPJPY) closed yesterday down about 1% and is sitting in the middle of its recent price range — so right now we don't have a clear signal pointing us in either direction just yet 💛. We'd want to see price either push back above 211.20 (the level that would tell us buyers are back in control) or break convincingly below yesterday's low before committing to a lean. For now, patience is the play — watch how price reacts at those boundaries before making any decisions.
⚠️ Lean invalidated if: 211.20
Gold
no clear bias
Gold had a tough session yesterday, closing down and sitting in the lower half of its daily range (meaning price settled closer to the day's lows than its highs) — but the picture isn't clear enough yet to call a real directional lean 💛. We're watching to see whether sellers can keep pushing or whether buyers step back in and reclaim lost ground; today's AUD inflation data (news that measures how fast prices are rising in Australia) could add some extra volatility (bigger, faster moves than usual) since Gold sometimes reacts to global inflation surprises. No strong bias yet — we'd want to see a clean move and close below current levels to lean bearish (downward), or a recovery back above yesterday's close to shift the mood back toward neutral or better.
⚠️ Lean invalidated if: above 3,980 on a daily close
Silver
no clear bias
Silver closed the last session on the softer side and is sitting near the bottom of its recent swing low (the last little valley price bounced from), so there's no clear directional lean just yet — we're watching for confirmation before committing to a direction. 💛 The range was quiet (smaller movement than Silver's typical daily distance), which tells us the market hasn't made up its mind, and with AUD inflation data dropping later today, volatility (big price swings) could shake things up. A strong hold and bounce from this area could signal buyers stepping in, while a clean break and close below current lows would be the sign bears (sellers) are in control.
S&P500
no clear bias
The S&P 500 is giving us a mixed picture right now — no strong tilt in either direction yet, so we're in a wait-and-see mode rather than leaning firmly one way. 💛 Price closed slightly lower last session and is sitting in the lower half of its recent range (meaning it's closer to the bottom of where it's been trading lately), but the move was quiet — smaller than its usual daily distance — so there's no real momentum to read confidently yet. Watch for whether buyers step in and push price back toward the upper half of the range, or whether sellers keep the pressure on and drive a more decisive move lower — that confirmation is what we'd want to see before forming a clear bias (directional lean).
NASDAQ
no clear bias
NASDAQ closed last session with a decent green candle (price finished higher than it opened), but with no major US data hitting today and price sitting in the lower half of its recent range, there's no clear directional tilt just yet — we're watching rather than leaning 💛. The AUD CPI prints this afternoon don't directly move NASDAQ, so the key question is whether buyers step in to push price back toward the upper part of the range or whether sellers take control again. Keep an eye on 28,900 — a close below that level would suggest the bulls (buyers) have lost their footing and the picture shifts more cautious.
⚠️ Lean invalidated if: below 28,900
DAX
no clear bias
DAX closed slightly softer yesterday with no major news events on the calendar today, so right now there's no clear lean in either direction — we're in a wait-and-see moment 💛. Watch to see whether price can hold above the 25,000 round-number area (a big, psychologically important price level that traders often pay attention to); if it slips and closes below there, a more cautious, bearish-leaning (tilting downward) picture could start to form. On the flip side, a push back above 25,400 would signal that buyers are back in control and would cancel out any near-term concern.
⚠️ Lean invalidated if: 25,400
BTCUSD
no clear bias
Bitcoin is sitting near the bottom of its recent range (the lowest price area it's been bouncing around in), but we don't have a clear directional lean just yet — the session was quiet and no major news events are pushing price one way or the other today. 💛 We're watching to see whether Bitcoin can hold this swing low area (the little floor price has been respecting) and reclaim strength, or whether sellers continue to press it lower. A clear daily close back above 82,500 would be the signal that this dip was just a wobble, while continued closes beneath current levels would open the door to further softness.
⚠️ Lean invalidated if: above 82,500
ETHUSD
no clear bias
ETH is sitting near the bottom of its recent range (the lowest prices she's visited lately) after a quiet, below-average session — so there's no clear tilt in either direction just yet 💛. We're watching to see whether buyers step in and defend this swing low (the little price floor we keep bouncing from), or whether sellers push through it and open the door lower. A reclaim and hold above 2,390 would be the first sign that the bears (sellers) are losing control and a brighter picture is forming.
⚠️ Lean invalidated if: 2,390
Data: prev-close analytics only. AI lean = educational context, not a trade signal. Source: TFW market data / yfinance. Always verify current price before acting.
High-Impact News — Red Folders
📅 Full economic calendar: ForexFactory.com/calendar → (always check for same-day additions)
TODAY
AUD — CPI m/m
⏰
PST 5:00pm · NY 8:00pm · London 1:00am · NZ 12:00pm
| Forecast: 0.7%
| Previous: 0.4%
AUDUSD
if hot:
if cool:
USDJPY
if hot:
if cool:
USDCAD
if hot:
if cool:
🎯 TFW Recommendation
CPI day for the USD — spreads on USD pairs can widen sharply at release and stops get hunted in both directions. The TFW approach: step back 30 minutes before the number drops and wait for the dust to settle (usually 15–20 minutes after release). Re-assess the chart once the initial candle closes. No need to chase — great setups appear AFTER the volatility, not during it. Think of it like rush hour — the road clears up beautifully once everyone else is done crashing into each other 💛
CPI day for the USD — spreads on USD pairs can widen sharply at release and stops get hunted in both directions. The TFW approach: step back 30 minutes before the number drops and wait for the dust to settle (usually 15–20 minutes after release). Re-assess the chart once the initial candle closes. No need to chase — great setups appear AFTER the volatility, not during it. Think of it like rush hour — the road clears up beautifully once everyone else is done crashing into each other 💛
TODAY
AUD — CPI y/y
⏰
PST 5:00pm · NY 8:00pm · London 1:00am · NZ 12:00pm
| Forecast: 4.2%
| Previous: 4.0%
AUDUSD
if hot:
if cool:
USDJPY
if hot:
if cool:
USDCAD
if hot:
if cool:
🎯 TFW Recommendation
CPI day for the USD — spreads on USD pairs can widen sharply at release and stops get hunted in both directions. The TFW approach: step back 30 minutes before the number drops and wait for the dust to settle (usually 15–20 minutes after release). Re-assess the chart once the initial candle closes. No need to chase — great setups appear AFTER the volatility, not during it. Think of it like rush hour — the road clears up beautifully once everyone else is done crashing into each other 💛
CPI day for the USD — spreads on USD pairs can widen sharply at release and stops get hunted in both directions. The TFW approach: step back 30 minutes before the number drops and wait for the dust to settle (usually 15–20 minutes after release). Re-assess the chart once the initial candle closes. No need to chase — great setups appear AFTER the volatility, not during it. Think of it like rush hour — the road clears up beautifully once everyone else is done crashing into each other 💛
TODAY
AUD — Trimmed Mean CPI m/m
⏰
PST 5:00pm · NY 8:00pm · London 1:00am · NZ 12:00pm
| Forecast: 0.3%
| Previous: 0.2%
AUDUSD
if hot:
if cool:
USDJPY
if hot:
if cool:
USDCAD
if hot:
if cool:
🎯 TFW Recommendation
CPI day for the USD — spreads on USD pairs can widen sharply at release and stops get hunted in both directions. The TFW approach: step back 30 minutes before the number drops and wait for the dust to settle (usually 15–20 minutes after release). Re-assess the chart once the initial candle closes. No need to chase — great setups appear AFTER the volatility, not during it. Think of it like rush hour — the road clears up beautifully once everyone else is done crashing into each other 💛
CPI day for the USD — spreads on USD pairs can widen sharply at release and stops get hunted in both directions. The TFW approach: step back 30 minutes before the number drops and wait for the dust to settle (usually 15–20 minutes after release). Re-assess the chart once the initial candle closes. No need to chase — great setups appear AFTER the volatility, not during it. Think of it like rush hour — the road clears up beautifully once everyone else is done crashing into each other 💛
TODAY
NZD — Official Cash Rate
⏰
PST 5:00pm · NY 8:00pm · London 1:00am · NZ 12:00pm
| Forecast: 3.00%
| Previous: 2.75%
NZDUSD
NZDJPY
AUDNZD
🎯 TFW Recommendation
High-impact economic event — this can cause sharp, fast moves on the relevant currency. TFW teaching: be cautious on pairs involving that currency for 15–20 minutes around the release. Wait for the volatility to settle and a clear candle structure to form before looking for entries. When in doubt with high-impact news, patience is always the right trade 💛
High-impact economic event — this can cause sharp, fast moves on the relevant currency. TFW teaching: be cautious on pairs involving that currency for 15–20 minutes around the release. Wait for the volatility to settle and a clear candle structure to form before looking for entries. When in doubt with high-impact news, patience is always the right trade 💛
TODAY
NZD — RBNZ Rate Statement
⏰
PST 5:00pm · NY 8:00pm · London 1:00am · NZ 12:00pm
NZDUSD
NZDJPY
AUDNZD
🎯 TFW Recommendation
High-impact economic event — this can cause sharp, fast moves on the relevant currency. TFW teaching: be cautious on pairs involving that currency for 15–20 minutes around the release. Wait for the volatility to settle and a clear candle structure to form before looking for entries. When in doubt with high-impact news, patience is always the right trade 💛
High-impact economic event — this can cause sharp, fast moves on the relevant currency. TFW teaching: be cautious on pairs involving that currency for 15–20 minutes around the release. Wait for the volatility to settle and a clear candle structure to form before looking for entries. When in doubt with high-impact news, patience is always the right trade 💛
TODAY
NZD — RBNZ Press Conference
⏰
PST 5:00pm · NY 8:00pm · London 1:00am · NZ 12:00pm
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
🎯 TFW Recommendation
High-impact economic event — this can cause sharp, fast moves on the relevant currency. TFW teaching: be cautious on pairs involving that currency for 15–20 minutes around the release. Wait for the volatility to settle and a clear candle structure to form before looking for entries. When in doubt with high-impact news, patience is always the right trade 💛
High-impact economic event — this can cause sharp, fast moves on the relevant currency. TFW teaching: be cautious on pairs involving that currency for 15–20 minutes around the release. Wait for the volatility to settle and a clear candle structure to form before looking for entries. When in doubt with high-impact news, patience is always the right trade 💛
TOMORROW
GBP — Annual Budget Release
⏰
PST 5:00pm · NY 8:00pm · London 1:00am · NZ 12:00pm
GBPUSD
EURUSD
USDJPY
🎯 TFW Recommendation
High-impact economic event — this can cause sharp, fast moves on the relevant currency. TFW teaching: be cautious on pairs involving that currency for 15–20 minutes around the release. Wait for the volatility to settle and a clear candle structure to form before looking for entries. When in doubt with high-impact news, patience is always the right trade 💛
High-impact economic event — this can cause sharp, fast moves on the relevant currency. TFW teaching: be cautious on pairs involving that currency for 15–20 minutes around the release. Wait for the volatility to settle and a clear candle structure to form before looking for entries. When in doubt with high-impact news, patience is always the right trade 💛
TOMORROW
CAD — BOC Monetary Policy Report
⏰
PST 5:00pm · NY 8:00pm · London 1:00am · NZ 12:00pm
USDCAD
🎯 TFW Recommendation
Bank of Canada Rate Decision — a primary mover for USDCAD and other CAD pairs. TFW tip: step aside from CAD pairs 15 minutes before and after the decision. USDCAD in particular can spike 50–100+ pips in seconds on a surprise. USDCAD is the pair to watch — let the loonie settle before you trade it 💛
Bank of Canada Rate Decision — a primary mover for USDCAD and other CAD pairs. TFW tip: step aside from CAD pairs 15 minutes before and after the decision. USDCAD in particular can spike 50–100+ pips in seconds on a surprise. USDCAD is the pair to watch — let the loonie settle before you trade it 💛
TOMORROW
CAD — BOC Rate Statement
⏰
PST 5:00pm · NY 8:00pm · London 1:00am · NZ 12:00pm
USDCAD
🎯 TFW Recommendation
Bank of Canada Rate Decision — a primary mover for USDCAD and other CAD pairs. TFW tip: step aside from CAD pairs 15 minutes before and after the decision. USDCAD in particular can spike 50–100+ pips in seconds on a surprise. USDCAD is the pair to watch — let the loonie settle before you trade it 💛
Bank of Canada Rate Decision — a primary mover for USDCAD and other CAD pairs. TFW tip: step aside from CAD pairs 15 minutes before and after the decision. USDCAD in particular can spike 50–100+ pips in seconds on a surprise. USDCAD is the pair to watch — let the loonie settle before you trade it 💛
TOMORROW
CAD — Overnight Rate
⏰
PST 5:00pm · NY 8:00pm · London 1:00am · NZ 12:00pm
| Forecast: 2.50%
| Previous: 2.25%
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
🎯 TFW Recommendation
High-impact economic event — this can cause sharp, fast moves on the relevant currency. TFW teaching: be cautious on pairs involving that currency for 15–20 minutes around the release. Wait for the volatility to settle and a clear candle structure to form before looking for entries. When in doubt with high-impact news, patience is always the right trade 💛
High-impact economic event — this can cause sharp, fast moves on the relevant currency. TFW teaching: be cautious on pairs involving that currency for 15–20 minutes around the release. Wait for the volatility to settle and a clear candle structure to form before looking for entries. When in doubt with high-impact news, patience is always the right trade 💛
TOMORROW
CAD — BOC Press Conference
⏰
PST 5:00pm · NY 8:00pm · London 1:00am · NZ 12:00pm
USDCAD
🎯 TFW Recommendation
Bank of Canada Rate Decision — a primary mover for USDCAD and other CAD pairs. TFW tip: step aside from CAD pairs 15 minutes before and after the decision. USDCAD in particular can spike 50–100+ pips in seconds on a surprise. USDCAD is the pair to watch — let the loonie settle before you trade it 💛
Bank of Canada Rate Decision — a primary mover for USDCAD and other CAD pairs. TFW tip: step aside from CAD pairs 15 minutes before and after the decision. USDCAD in particular can spike 50–100+ pips in seconds on a surprise. USDCAD is the pair to watch — let the loonie settle before you trade it 💛
TOMORROW
USD — Federal Funds Rate
⏰
PST 5:00pm · NY 8:00pm · London 1:00am · NZ 12:00pm
| Forecast: 4.00%
| Previous: 4.00%
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
🎯 TFW Recommendation
High-impact economic event — this can cause sharp, fast moves on the relevant currency. TFW teaching: be cautious on pairs involving that currency for 15–20 minutes around the release. Wait for the volatility to settle and a clear candle structure to form before looking for entries. When in doubt with high-impact news, patience is always the right trade 💛
High-impact economic event — this can cause sharp, fast moves on the relevant currency. TFW teaching: be cautious on pairs involving that currency for 15–20 minutes around the release. Wait for the volatility to settle and a clear candle structure to form before looking for entries. When in doubt with high-impact news, patience is always the right trade 💛
TOMORROW
USD — FOMC Statement
⏰
PST 5:00pm · NY 8:00pm · London 1:00am · NZ 12:00pm
EURUSD
if hot:
if cool:
USDJPY
if hot:
if cool:
GBPUSD
if hot:
if cool:
AUDUSD
if hot:
if cool:
USDCAD
if hot:
if cool:
🎯 TFW Recommendation
FOMC Statement and/or Rate Decision — this moves everything. Rate decisions are especially powerful. TFW guidance: go flat or stay out for 30 minutes around the announcement (1 hour for the full press conference if scheduled). The market often reverses 2–3 times in the first hour as traders digest the language. Let that volatility clear before looking for structure. FOMC is the market equivalent of a plot twist — let the episode finish before making your move 💛
FOMC Statement and/or Rate Decision — this moves everything. Rate decisions are especially powerful. TFW guidance: go flat or stay out for 30 minutes around the announcement (1 hour for the full press conference if scheduled). The market often reverses 2–3 times in the first hour as traders digest the language. Let that volatility clear before looking for structure. FOMC is the market equivalent of a plot twist — let the episode finish before making your move 💛
TOMORROW
USD — FOMC Press Conference
⏰
PST 5:00pm · NY 8:00pm · London 1:00am · NZ 12:00pm
EURUSD
if hot:
if cool:
GBPUSD
if hot:
if cool:
USDJPY
if hot:
if cool:
AUDUSD
if hot:
if cool:
USDCAD
if hot:
if cool:
🎯 TFW Recommendation
FOMC Statement and/or Rate Decision — this moves everything. Rate decisions are especially powerful. TFW guidance: go flat or stay out for 30 minutes around the announcement (1 hour for the full press conference if scheduled). The market often reverses 2–3 times in the first hour as traders digest the language. Let that volatility clear before looking for structure. FOMC is the market equivalent of a plot twist — let the episode finish before making your move 💛
FOMC Statement and/or Rate Decision — this moves everything. Rate decisions are especially powerful. TFW guidance: go flat or stay out for 30 minutes around the announcement (1 hour for the full press conference if scheduled). The market often reverses 2–3 times in the first hour as traders digest the language. Let that volatility clear before looking for structure. FOMC is the market equivalent of a plot twist — let the episode finish before making your move 💛
Recent Community Wins
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Beautiful meltdowns 🤧🫶
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AUDUSD - 5M
Most Discussed in the Community
Based on symbol mentions in TFW community posts and comments over the last 7 days.
Important notice: This briefing is for educational purposes only — not financial advice. Trading results vary. Markets can do anything. Always manage your risk. This briefing is generated from publicly available market data and community activity. It is context for educational purposes only — not a trade signal or financial advice. The TFW team are educators, not licensed financial advisors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always use a stop loss and only risk what you can afford to lose.
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📖 Trading terms explained — tap to open
New here? Every term used in this briefing, explained in plain words. No jargon left unexplained.
Swing High / Swing Low
The last peak (swing high) or valley (swing low) on the chart — the little bumps price made before reversing.
Traders watch these because price often reacts there: it might bounce off a swing low or stall at a swing high.
Range
How far price moved from its lowest to highest point in a session.
A 'quiet range' means price barely moved. An 'expanded range' means it moved more than usual — higher volatility day.
ATR (Average True Range)
The average distance price travels in a typical session — its 'normal step size'.
When the day's range is bigger than ATR, price is moving more than usual. When smaller, it's a quiet day. Helps size stops sensibly.
Liquidity Sweep
Price briefly dips below a swing low (or above a swing high) to grab the stop orders sitting there, then snaps back.
It's the market 'raiding' the stops before the real move. Seeing a sweep then a reversal is often a strong signal.
Bias / Directional Lean
Which way the market seems to be leaning — bullish (upward), bearish (downward), or no strong lean.
Bias doesn't mean price will definitely go that way. It's the direction that looks more likely given current structure. Always have a plan if it goes the other way.
Invalidation Level
The price where your reason for the trade is no longer valid — 'if it gets here, my idea was wrong'.
Knowing your invalidation level before entering helps you decide where to put your stop loss and whether the trade is worth the risk.
Retest
When price comes back to a level it just broke through — testing whether that level now holds as support or resistance.
After a breakout, many traders wait for the retest (the return visit) as a higher-quality entry rather than chasing the initial break.
Scalping
Taking very quick, small trades — in and out in minutes, targeting small price moves.
Scalpers trade frequently and need tight spreads. Around news events, TFW teaches to avoid scalping because spreads widen and stops get hit fast.
Spread
The gap between the buy price and sell price — the broker's fee for the trade.
Around high-impact news, spreads can widen dramatically (5-10× normal). This is why TFW teaches to step back before news: your stop might get hit just from the spread alone.
Stop Hunt
When price briefly spikes to hit a cluster of stop-loss orders before reversing in the original direction.
Common before and after news events. Setting stops at 'obvious' round numbers or just below swing lows makes you more vulnerable.
Consolidation
Price moving sideways in a tight zone — taking a breather, not going anywhere in particular.
After a big move, markets often consolidate before continuing. TFW teaches patience here: wait for a breakout with momentum rather than trading inside the range.
Breakout
When price pushes through a level it's been unable to get past — breaking the ceiling or the floor.
The best breakouts have momentum behind them (strong candle, volume if available). Fakeouts (false breakouts) are common, so many traders wait for a close beyond the level or a retest.
Pullback
A temporary move against the main trend — a step backwards before the trend continues.
Pullbacks are one of the best trade entries in trending markets. TFW teaches to wait for price to pull back to a key level (like the 50 EMA or a swing low) before entering in the direction of the trend.
Red Folder
High-impact news events shown in red on the ForexFactory economic calendar — the big announcements that can move markets sharply.
Examples: CPI (inflation), NFP (US jobs), central bank rate decisions. TFW teaching: step back from the market 15-30 minutes before red folder releases and wait for the chaos to settle.
Risk:Reward (R:R)
How much you could make versus how much you're risking on a single trade — e.g. 1:2 means risking $1 to potentially make $2.
Even if you're only right 40% of the time, a 1:3 R:R can still be profitable. TFW teaches to aim for at least 1:2 before taking a trade.
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