TFW Daily Briefing — 23 September 2026

EURUSD is sitting near the bottom of its recent range (the lowest prices it's touched lately) after a nearly flat session, so there's no clear push in either direction just yet — we want to see price actually commit before leaning one way. 💛 The pair has been quiet (moving less than its usual daily distance), which tells us the market is in a 'wait and see' mode rather than trending. Today's high-impact news is Australian data, not directly tied to EUR or USD, so keep watching for a decisive move away from this swing low (the little valley price has been bouncing around near) to give us a real clue — a hold and push higher could signal buyers stepping in, while a break below 1.1480 would open the door to more downside.

Cable (GBPUSD) is sitting near the bottom of yesterday's range (the low end of where price moved), which could mean sellers are in control — but the session was quiet with a very small move, so there's no clear signal yet either way. 💛 We're watching to see whether buyers step in here and push price back above 1.3440, which would be the first sign of strength worth paying attention to. Until we see a clear reaction, it's a 'wait and see' moment rather than a moment to lean in either direction.

Dollar-yen is sitting in a bit of a wait-and-see spot right now — yesterday's session closed slightly higher, but price is resting in the middle of its recent range (not near any obvious high or low to push from), so there's no clear edge to lean on just yet. 💛 The red-folder events today (high-impact news releases that can shake markets) are actually Australian data, which touches yen pairs indirectly through risk mood shifts, so keep an eye on how markets react around 5:00pm PST. Watch for price to show a clear hold above 157 with momentum before considering any upside lean — a daily close back below 155.80 would tell us the mild upward tilt is no longer valid.

Honestly, AUD/USD (the Australian dollar versus the US dollar) is giving us a mixed picture right now — yesterday's session barely moved (+0.09%), price is sitting in the lower half of its recent range (meaning it's closer to the bottom of where it's been trading than the top), and today brings two big Australian jobs reports that could swing things in either direction. With major event risk (high-impact news that can shake the pair hard) arriving at 5:00pm PST in the form of Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures, we really want to wait and see what those numbers say before leaning bullish (upward) or bearish (downward). Watch how price reacts after the release — a strong jobs number that pushes AUD/USD back above the upper half of the recent range could open the door for a bullish lean, while a disappointing read that keeps price pinned low would be worth watching for a bearish tilt. 💛

USDCAD is sitting in a quiet, no-clear-bias zone right now — price barely moved last session and there's no strong pull in either direction just yet. 💛 We'd want to see a clean hold and push above the recent swing high (the highest point price reached before pulling back) to start leaning bullish (upward), or a drop and close below 1.3950 to open the door to more downside. For now, it's a watching-and-waiting moment rather than a rushing-in moment.

The pound-yen had a positive session yesterday, but right now the picture is mixed enough that we don't have a clear lean just yet 💛 — price is sitting in the lower half of its recent range (meaning it's closer to the bottom of where it's been trading) and the session was quieter than usual, so we'd want to see the pair push back above recent highs with some energy before leaning in either direction. Watch 209.20 as the level to keep an eye on — a close below there would tell us sellers are firmly in control and shift our attention lower.

Gold had a quiet session yesterday but slipped nearly 1% (meaning price drifted lower without much drama), closing in the lower half of its recent range — so there's a small downward tilt in the air, but nothing strong enough yet to call a clear direction. 💛 We're watching to see whether buyers step in and push price back above recent highs, or whether sellers stay in control and press it lower — that next move will help us form a real lean. No major news events are touching Gold today, so price action itself (what the candles actually do) will be our guide.

Silver is sitting in a bit of a wait-and-see moment right now — no clear push in either direction yet, so we're not leaning strongly one way or the other 💛. She slipped a little last session and is resting in the lower half of her recent range (the window between her recent high and low), but movement was quiet (smaller than her typical daily distance), which means we don't have a strong signal to act on just yet. Watch to see if buyers step in and push her back above 66.80 for any upside (bullish, meaning upward) interest, or if she continues to fade lower — a decisive close beneath current levels would be the first hint that bears (sellers) are gaining control.

The S&P 500 closed pretty flat yesterday with no big news events on the calendar today, so right now there's no clear push in either direction — we're in a wait-and-see moment 💛. Price is sitting near a recent swing high (a peak price previously struggled to get above), which means we'd want to see a strong, confident close above that level before leaning bullish (upward-leaning). Keep an eye on 5,550 — if price were to slip and close below there, the calmer picture we're seeing now could start to shift.

NASDAQ put in a strong session — closing up +2.83% with an expanded range (meaning she moved much more than her usual daily distance), and she finished near the top of that range, which shows buyers stayed in control right to the close 💛. Our bias (or lean) stays moderately bullish while price holds above the 19,800 area; a daily close back beneath that level would tell us the move may have run out of steam and we'd step back to neutral. With no high-impact news events on the calendar today, the technical picture gets to do the talking — watch for a calm, steady hold of yesterday's gains as the first sign of continued strength.

DAX had a rough session yesterday, dropping -1.60% and closing in the lower half of its daily range — meaning sellers were in control right through the close 💛. That kind of expanded range (she moved more than her usual daily distance) with a weak close leans bearish (tilting downward), so our bias stays cautious while price holds below 25,550. A recovery and close back above 25,550 would flip the picture and tell us the dip may be getting bought up.

Bitcoin closed near the top of yesterday's range after a big +6.73% session — that kind of strong push higher, closing near the highs (the very top of where price traveled yesterday), tells us the buyers were firmly in control 💛. Our bias stays moderately bullish (leaning upward) while Bitcoin holds above 83,500; a daily close back below that level would invalidate (cancel out) this lean and suggest the move may have been a fakeout rather than a real shift. Because the range expanded (Bitcoin moved much more than its typical daily distance), we want to see price settle and digest before assuming the next leg higher is ready — confirmation near current levels would be encouraging.

Ethereum closed the last session up over 5% and finished near the top of its daily range (the highest prices of the day's candle), which is a sign that buyers were in control right up to the close 💛. The range also expanded — meaning ETH moved much more than its typical daily distance — and that kind of strong, wide move with a high close often signals continued interest from buyers in the sessions ahead. Bias stays moderately bullish (leaning upward) while ETH holds above 2,620; a daily close below that level would flip this outlook and suggest the move may have been a short-lived spike rather than the start of something bigger.